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The investing world has develop into ridiculous. What if I'm investing in a number of shares/ETFs? Amazingly, the Dow ended the week largely unchanged, whereas the S&P500 declined about 1%. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical index really added 4% and the Morgan Stanley Consumer index elevated 1%. The Utilities and Biotechs both elevated 2%. The broader market moved around loads however ended little modified, as the small cap Russell 2000 and the S&P400 mid-cap indices ended largely flat for the week. This week from Fannie Mae vice president and chief economist David Berson: “A document yr for mortgage originations in 2002 is a certainty - we count on a complete of $2.5 trillion in originations this yr. Dow Jones (Stan Rosenberg) quoted the vice chairman of Fitch Ratings: “I’m simply stunned at the way it may go from $21 billion to $35 billion in a month.” The LA Times quoted the Republican chief of the State Assembly: “These numbers transcend probably the most dire predictions and projections we have been taking a look at.” The Democrat Senate President Pro Tem was quoted by the Sacramento Bee (John Hill): “It’s an issue of nearly insurmountable proportions.” Earlier proposed cuts - together with $3.1 billion to varsities, $2 billion to well being and social companies, $1.7 billion for transportation and $1.9 billion for authorities administration - might be elevated. Total Bank Belongings have jumped 1 billion over the past 34 weeks, 15% annualized. December 16 - Bloomberg: “MBIA Inc., the most important monetary guaranty insurer, could have larger-than-anticipated losses to write down the worth of collateralized debt obligations it ensures, a Morgan Stanley analyst said.

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Not surprising contemplating unbelievable money and credit score creation - particularly in the consumer mortgage sector - February auto gross sales stunned analysts, coming in a lot stronger than expected. We see an historic mortgage-refinancing growth as persevering with to play a significant position on this interval of extraordinary financial excess. In fact, we’ll see invest for a swell of deal-making over the subsequent few months. While not as dire as California, standard life investments asia limited after the primary two months of fiscal 2003 the federal deficit has already reached $119 billion. China now has taken over Japan as our nation with the biggest imbalance of billion. For the week, the Dow and S&P500 added about 1%. The Utilities gained 3%, and the Morgan Stanley Cyclical index elevated 2%. The Transports and Morgan Stanley Consumer indices have been barely constructive. This week, The Workplace of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released its Fourth Quarter 2000 House Price Index. For the week, two-yr Treasury yields dropped eleven foundation factors to 1.73%, and 5-12 months yields sank 14 foundation factors to 2.90%. The 10-12 months Treasury observe noticed its yield dip eleven foundation factors to 3.96%, whereas lengthy-bond yields declined six foundation factors to 4.90%. Benchmark Mortgage-again yields dropped 12 foundation factors and the implied yield on company futures dipped 14 foundation factors.

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The implied yield on the June company futures contract dropped 12 foundation factors Tuesday, solely to shoot 10 foundation investing com ไทย factors greater as we speak. That was simply because the 10-yr Treasury yield dropped beneath 1% for the primary time in historical past. The December Federal Reserve Bulletin accommodates an interesting examine, “Mortgage Refinancing in 2001 and Early 2002.” An estimated 1.6 billion of fairness was extracted within the refinancing process in the course of the 18-month interval 2001 via the first-half of 2002. I'll contact upon a few highlights: Forty-5 p.c of homeowners cashflow driven investing who refinanced in 2001 and the first half of 2002 extracted equity, in comparison with about 35% during 1999. The typical (mean) extraction jumped from 1999’s ,240 to ,723. Still, with residence gross sales down by solely 1-2 p.c and house costs rising by 4-5 p.c, buy originations ought to set a brand new report in 2003. Even refinance exercise will keep traditionally robust, particularly in the primary half of the yr, as important accumulated fairness will keep money-out refinacings strong - and the modest rise in curiosity charges ought to gradual this a part of the market solely a bit. Furthermore, policymaker fixation on an index of consumer prices not solely utterly misses the inflationary boom, relative worth stability in items and companies encourages a dangerous sanguine view of manifestations akin to rising asset prices and surging revenues. Central banks have been lastly pressed to rein in overissuance of cash even at the price of appreciable non permanent financial disruption…

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” Such experimental central banking is anathema to sound cash and stable finance, and can show an unmitigated catastrophe. With the ramifications of Japanese stocks at 15-yr lows an inarguable adverse for the Japanese banking system, there is evident danger of unpleasant market surprises going ahead. The Fed’s push to maintain Credit inflation solely creates extra distortions, and we're left to Ponder the ramifications for the eventual collapse of the nice California Real Estate Bubble. It's also price noting the continued benefits of passive investing deterioration in subprime lending, one other key systemic weak hyperlink with main ramifications for “structured finance” and the economic system. The important thing level to acknowledge right this moment is that the Fed is coping with a really unstable economic system and monetary system and has few instruments and little flexibility. And with auto and housing demand comparatively sturdy, in addition to operating huge commerce deficits, all of the discuss of recession will not be solely superficial, it misses the important thing level that that is something however a backyard-selection downturn. As you properly know, we've got a really progressive invest for system on this state - 80% of our revenues come from 10% of the tax earners.

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